Updated Election Results for Nader/Gonzalez State by State

Nader Effect Update

Tuesday, September 23, 2008 at 08:29:00 PM

News Advisory
Contact: (Washington) Toby Heaps, 202-471-5833, toby@votenader.org

Is Nader a Republican 'spoiler' this year?

Contrary to conventional wisdom, Ralph Nader's presence on the ballot in 2008 actually helps Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama, according to at least five national polls conducted over the past three months, as well as a Florida poll conducted last week and a Virginia poll this week.

In each of the national polls, Obama's spread over Republican candidate John McCain widened by an average of more than 3 percent when Nader and Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr were included on the menu of choices.

Nader appears to be more of a factor than Barr. Nader was ahead of Barr in four of the polls and tied in the other. On average, Nader polled 2 percent higher than Barr.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. for Florida that came out this past Wednesday showed Obama and McCain tied at 48 percent. But when third-party candidates were added to the mix, Obama retained his ground, and McCain dropped back 4 percent.

CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp
Date: 9/14-16
Added: 9/18/08

Barack Obama        48%
John McCain           44%
Ralph Nader             4%
Bob Barr                   1%
Cynthia McKinney    1%

In a Sept 21, Washington Post-ABC News Poll of registered voters in Virginia, Obama has a 6-point margin over McCain, besting the Arizona Senator 50 percent to 44 percent. When third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the mix, Obama's spread over McCain grows to an 8-point margin (Obama = 51 percent, McCain = 43 percent), with Barr and Nader both chalking up 2 percent each.

Last week the Nader/Gonzalez campaign announced that it will be on the ballot in 45 states plus the District of Columbia, this November -- a record for Nader. Voters will also be able to write in Nader/Gonzalez in four more states: Texas, Georgia, Indiana and North Carolina, for a total of 49 states plus D.C. Oklahoma is the only holdout. In his two previous runs for president, Nader was on 34 ballots in 2004, and 44 in 2000.

Asked if he expected 2008 to be a repeat of 2000, Nader says, "Our nation is in a terrible economic crisis, entrenched in two wars, the party in power -- the Republicans -- are clueless how to get us out of this mess. The Democrats should be walking away with this, but they aren't. Why? Instead the Democrats are polling neck and neck with former Keating Five candidate John McCain.

"Is it any wonder that American voters are fed up and looking for alternate candidates to vote for? We are not the ones who have spoiled this country. They have. Our solutions are in sync with the American public. We want to end the wars and bring real single-payer healthcare and a living wage to all Americans. If that earns us votes, we are proud of that. If the Democrats would be a true opposition party and stop voting with the Republicans and betraying the public trust on issue after issue -- offshore oil drilling, FISA, the Iraq war, Patriot Act -- then they might actually win for a change."

"We all have to earn our votes, and in this volatile election year, that is as true as ever,"  Nader added.

The Nader Effect is Actually an Obama Bump
Summaries of major national polls over the past three months

                                                                Obama's        Obama's
                                                                Margin             Margin             Obama's
                                                                Without           With                  Nader
Date        Source                                    Nader              Nader               Bump
                 Los Angeles Times/  
25-Jun      Bloomberg Poll                        12%                15%                   3%

06-Jun      CNN/ORC Poll                           3%                  4%                   1%

16-Jul       Reuters/Zogby Poll                   7%                 10%                   3%

24-Jul       NBC/Wall Street
                 Journal Survey                           6%                 13%                   7%

21-Aug     NBC/Wall Street
                 Journal Survey                           3%                  5%                    2%

18-Sept   CNN/ORC Poll (FL)*                  0%                  4%                    4%

21-Sept   Wash Post*                                  6%                   8%                  2%
               ABC News Poll (VA)

Note: Each of these polls with Nader also included Barr.       
*Data for a single state only (Florida or Virginia).


In the key swing state of Michigan -- whose Democratic voters were partially disenfranchised by the Democratic National Committee -- an EPIC-MRA poll found Nader at 8-10 percent. Nader is also polling as high as 6-8 percent in other key battleground states: Colorado (7%), Pennsylvania (7%), New Mexico (8%) and Nevada (6%). (http://www.time.com/time/2008/poll_main.pdf).
"It's clear that Ralph Nader could again have a significant impact on the Presidential race -- though in highly unpredictable ways," Time/CNN pollsters concluded.